Commodities – Weekly Newsletter 

Date – 11th September 2016

 

Gold – Comex& MCX

Comex

Recap– Gold prices dropped sharply in the second half of the week. Earlier on Tuesday we saw a breakout above $1330 and immediately prices tested a high of $1352.6 on the same day. Later we see prices started coming down to the previous lows around $1330, to close at $1327.5, erasing all the early gains.

Forecast – As we see prices trading in a range of $1310 to $1350, we expect the sideways movement to continue in coming weeks. MACD had a down line cross over, so we may expect prices to test the lower levels of $1300.

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Gold – Comex 1327.5 1317.7 1301 1335.5 1350 Sideways

 

MCX

Recap–Gold in MCX prices closed yesterday in a weak note; earlier prices went up sharply on Tuesday after a break of Rs.31100 to close at 31378. Prices dropped later from its important Resistance level at Rs31500. We see prices trading in the range of Rs.31000 to Rs.31500 for nearly 10 weeks.No sharp decline seen like Comex as INR supported prices to hold.

Forecast–We expect prices could retrace to the lower levels of Rs.31100 in the first half of the week. Then prices could take support level at Rs.31000 – Rs.31100 and next move could be clear on a close below these levels. Need to watch out INR moves also which could have impact on MCX prices.

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Gold 31217 31100 30920 31335 31510 Sideways

 

Silver – Comex& MCX

Comex

Recap –Silver went up earlier after a break above $19.5 and tested its important Resistance at $20. Later we see prices unable to hold on the higher level and dropped sharply lower to close at $19.04,near its key support level of $19, particularly on Friday after a break of $19.5

Forecast -We expect Silver prices to trade weak below $19 to target $18.5 in coming days as we see a formation of Head and Shoulders pattern towards $18.5. The $18.5 looks a good buying level for positional targets.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Silver – Comex 19.04 18.85 18.5 19.28 19.5 Weak

 

MCX

Recap –Silver prices in MCX went up sharply in the beginning of the week particularly on 6th September had a

break of Rs.46500 and tested Rs.47694 on the same day. Later in the middle of the week, prices closed sharply lower erasing all the early gains to close at Rs.46194

Forecast –We expect prices to test its Resistance level of Rs.46400 to Rs.46500 and can expect a selling pressure on highs to target Rs.46000, more drop possible below this for a target of Rs.45600 – Rs.45500. Prices could test more highs on a hold above Rs.46600 only.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Silver – MCX 46110 45900 45680 46500 46760 Sideways

 

Copper – MCX

Recap –  Copper prices trading weak over many weeks. We see the long term bearish trend which started from Rs.510 could probably end shortly. We see the consolidation of prices in the weekly chart at Rs.340 to Rs.300. The short term trend remains weak from Rs.340 to end up at Rs.290 levels.

Forecast – We expect copper prices to consolidate further around Rs.300 to Rs.320, and heading towards the strong bottom of Rs.290 – Rs.300. We expect prices to trade weak in short term and a positional buy on dips to Rs.290 to Rs.300 for a bigger target.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Copper 313.65 310 305.5 315.5 319.8 Buy on dips

 

Nickel – MCX

Recap –Nickel prices trading sideways after a break of the strong consolidation phase at Rs.550 – Rs.600. We see a sharp upside bullish candle last week from the low of Rs.663.6 to close near high at Rs.692.3.  We can see short term strong resistance level at Rs.700

Forecast– We expect Nickel prices to face its resistance at Rs.700 and could retrace downside till Rs.680 to Rs.670.Prices could face selling pressure at around Rs.700, and a bullish trend could come only on a strong close above Rs.710, else we can see the consolidation levels to continue.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Nickel 692.3 673.5 662 700 713 Sell on Rise

 

Lead – MCX

Recap–Lead prices dropped sharply erasing all the last week’s gain. Prices dropped sharply lower from the strong level of Rs.131 to close weak yesterday at Rs.126.6, low made at Rs.125.6. Earlier Lead prices was bullish among Base Metals and we see the current fall as correction.Prices could face strong supports at Rs.125 – Rs.126

Forecast – As Lead prices looks bullish in medium term perspective, we can expect prices to take support at Rs.125 and could trade bullish for a target of Rs.128 to Rs.130 in coming weeks. A break below Rs.125 may take prices to Rs.123, but we recommend a buy on dips to the said levels.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Lead 126.6 125 123.2 127.5 128.9 Buy on Sup 1

 

Zinc – MCX

Recap – Zinc prices dropped sharply lower from the high of Rs.157.5 to close at Rs.153.05. Unlike Lead prices, Zinc prices continue to trade bullish over several weeks. The bullish trend continues after the consolidation range of Rs.100 to Rs.105.

Forecast – We expect some correction in prices till Rs.152 to even Rs.150, we maintain our Bullish view in Zinc, any dips to the said support level can be used as a buying opportunity for a target of Rs.155 to Rs.157 positional.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Zinc 153.05 152.1 150.2 154.2 155.5 Buy on Sup 1

 

 

Aluminium – MCX

Recap –Aluminium prices trading weak for the consecutive third week. Prices trading weak from the high of Rs.113.7 to close this week at Rs.104.85.We expect the prices to trade  choppy at Rs.105 to Rs.106 levels.

Forecast –We can see strong resistance level at Rs.106 , a break and hold below Rs.104.8 could take prices till Rs.103.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Aluminium 104.85 104 102.8 106.1 107.8 Sell below Sup 1

 

Crude Oil  – NYMEX &MCX

Recap –Crude Oil prices in Nymex had a volatile week mixed with fundamentals. Prices trading in a range of $44 to $48 for the last two weeks. We saw a drop in last week prices, and a rebound in prices levels to a high of $47.75 on Thursday following a drop in Inventory. Prices closed in the middle at $45.72. MCX Crude Oil September Futures had a volatile trading range between Rs.3000 to Rs.3200. Prices rebounded sharply after it made a low of Rs.2913 and closed sharply higher at Rs.3080 especially on the last day of trading.

Forecast – We expect prices to trade sideways with high volatility in coming week in the range of $44 to $47. Either a break of the said levels could confirm the next sharp moves. MCX Crude Oil prices could test the support levels of Rs.3050 in the initial stages and we expect a bounce from these levels for a target of Rs.3120 to Rs3150 levels.

 

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Crude Oil 3080 3050 3020 3130 3180 Buy on Sup 1

 

Natural Gas –MCX

Recap–Natural Gas prices trading in a sideways trend. Weekly levels prices trading in a range of Rs.180 to Rs.195 levels. Earlier this week we saw prices trading lower butrebounded sharply after Inventory supported prices to close on a positive note.

Forecast – We expect prices to trade sideways at Rs.185 to Rs.190 levels, a break above Rs.195 could take prices immediately to Rs.200, strong support level seen at Rs.184

Commodity Close Sup 1 Sup 2 Res 1 Res 2 Trend
Natural Gas 188.3 182.9 180.1 191 193.5 Sideways

 

Disclaimer:Trading/investing in Commodity Derivatives involves considerable risk and may not be suitable for all types of investors and/or traders. The investor and/or trader may have the risk of losing part or all or even in excess of the initial investment. ProfitTrendz does not offer any product / service with assured / guaranteed returns.